Tour de France: Vingegaard, Pogacar, Thomas, Bardet, Yates, Quintana, Gaudu … the battle will be terrible in the Pyrenees

Jonas Vinggaard (Jumbo Visma)

• Ranking: 1st
• Advance in fourth: 3’01”

What should he send to the platform

Simply his level. Dane, with Tadej Pogacar, forms a duo that evolves a degree above the competition in the Grande Boucle. If that doesn’t translate into time for the Slovenian, Vingegaard won’t be surpassed by a favorite other than the double title holder. Evidence of diversity that we didn’t necessarily suspect. But it’s his climbing skills (and his team’s) that make Hillerslev’s man so high.

His Granon Theater is a paragon of its kind and we wouldn’t be far from agreeing with Pogacar when he wondered if he wasn’t the best climber in the world. In the Pyrenees, he still had to search for Thomas, Bardet and the others. And over the clock, the punishment should be the same.

What can deprive him of it?

Fall, covid or fiasco. To tell the truth, if misfortune befalls Jonas Vinggaard, we’d rather bet on the first two solutions. In the pedals, it was far superior to the competition on the podium. Imagining him being overthrown by a Pogacar is one thing, and imagining him by a Slovenian and two other runners is another.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 95%

Tadej Pojakar (UAE – UAE)

• Second place
• Advance in IV: 39″

What should he send to the platform

On this tour are Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar and the others. Even if the Slovenian is, for the time being, lagging behind his Danish rival and only leading the group of pursuers, he clearly appears to be superior to Thomas, Bardet, etc. Grannon’s boxwood shot shouldn’t make us forget that he’s still an exceptional climber, and even if he doesn’t fly like last year, his attacks make everyone crumble away from Vingegaard.

Moreover, he will not only find favorable ground during the three phases of the Pyrenees, but also during the (relatively) long phase of Rocamadour, rugged at will. It will be very difficult for him to achieve a triple, due to his failure at the Col de Granon. But the margin that those who follow him in the standings have seems very important to him to take the podium this past week.

What can deprive him of it?

A second major landing in the mountains, similar to what happened last Wednesday in the Alps. After all, if it happened once, why not a second? The Slovenian youth gave a lot in the first week and it could cost him a boost of energy in the final leg of this tour. But Pogacar’s caution is worth two. “I know what happened in Granon and it won’t happen again,” he said.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 90%

Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers)

• Ranking: 3rd
• Advance in IV: 18”

What should he send to the platform

Geraint Thomas is without a doubt the third man in this Tour de France. His climb to the Alpe d’Huez where he finished with Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard was the best example of this. So far, the 2018 winner is the most consistent of the others, which logically allows him to be well ahead of Bardet, teammate Yates, Quintana or Gaudo. They should each be able to get some time back from it, but not enough to get over it. And with Rocamadour’s time, his strategy has a good chance of working.

What can deprive him of it?

Whether the race went completely crazy and lost control a bit or INEOS erred on a wobbly team strategy. There are many scenarios in which Thomas finds himself trapped and alone on a wild mountain stage. Also watch out for the third week since it’s been three years since the last “G” fight is generally at this level at the end of a grand tour.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 60%

Roman Bardet (DSM Team)

• Ranking: 4th
• Delay on platform: 18″

What should he send to the platform

his mental state. We’ll get back to that in Section Two, but Roman Bardet has no choice but to take a risk if he wants to get on the podium. That’s fine, he really wants it, and he repeats to everyone who listens that his only goal is to win the stage. Will it be compatible with the search for third place?

Everything will depend on the conditions and format of the race and the conditions of the opponents. A hell of a puzzle with many unknowns. However, the Bardet 2021 Vintage is very well born, and if the fight is launched from afar in the Pyrenees, you will find what you love most.

What can deprive him of it?

Trial time of course. The equation is simple for Bardet (but to solve it is very complex), it will take at least a minute and thirty seconds before Geraint Thomas, if the latter is his ultimate opponent. So he should take two minutes off a Briton who has only hit him once, for 28 seconds at Granon.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 30%

Adam Yates (INEOS Grenadiers)

• Ranking: Fifth
• Delay on podium: 1’23”

What should he send to the platform

Team strategy? INEOS has three riders in the top nine who are Thomas, Yates and Bedcock. If the latter does not really believe in the platform, then Simon’s brother is not far from it. If Yates takes a hit, Vingegaard and Pogacar probably won’t be suspicious and Thomas obviously won’t roll on him. As for imagining Bardet’s DSMs positioning themselves at the helm of the pack, there’s a step we wouldn’t take. Rather than succumb to events so far, Adam Yates would have a good idea to provoke them into the Pyrenees.

What can deprive him of it?

His overall performance in the Tour de France. If the Briton has been in a podium race, he has never defeated one of his direct opponents to pedal at a finish at the top. No more at La Planche, as at Granon (only Pogacar was behind him) and at Alpe d’Huez. Mitchelton’s former house is interested in finding holy legs if he wants to reverse the fight. Certainly not Yeats by the hour but Thomas beats him.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 15%

Nero Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic)

• Ranking: Sixth
• Delay on podium: 1’32”

What should he send to the platform

The 32-year-old Colombian is no longer the same runner he was at the time he was at Movistar. The podium may be a personal goal but not his team’s goal. However, Quintana is not as strong as it is in the absence of pressure. Nobody bet on him on the podium at the start of the race and that’s still the case.

Whatever he does, he should be back in the top ten of the round (except for a major failure) and he has nothing to lose. The three mountain stages give him three chances to move up the rankings, which is a solid enough program and gives him a chance to reclaim his 92 seconds over Thomas, third overall.

What can deprive him of it?

The strength of his opponents and file last week. Except for Grannon’s day, the Colombian always seemed weaker than the others. He was not reassured before approaching the Pyrenees who historically smiled less at Quintana than the Alps when he was on the podium.

He will not find any ascent above 2,000 metres, as he excels further, and will have to take risks, as in Granon, in the hope of overthrowing the general. But he will not be able to count on his team, with Barjeel abandoned and he will certainly have to get on the podium before the 40km trial the day before the finish to hope to be there in Paris, given his weak abilities. traits in exercise.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 10%

Louis Meintjes (Intermarché – Wanty – Gobert Materials)

• Ranking: Seventh
• Delay on podium: 1’41”

What should he send to the platform

The miracle of Pereiro. If South Africa is in the top ten overall, it’s only thanks to his break-up. He signaled over 18 minutes from Vingegaard on Granon’s evening, and reclaimed 14 thanks to his escapes to Alpe d’Huez and Mende. Given his form from the start, he will need a third to hope to grab the podium, even if he finds his legs off Dauphiné (sixth).

What can deprive him of it?

His inability to struggle with the pedal. On paper, it now seems impossible to let go. To hang on the podium, he will have to move higher on a regular basis, which he hasn’t done in five years (8th place in the 2017 Tour), if he has already. He was almost unable to change the pace of his attack, and he had never shown that he was able to outsmart his direct opponents. Unfortunately for him, his abilities in time are undoubtedly “worse” than the candidates for the podium, something to say, even if he was surprised in Copenhagen (24).

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 1%

David Godot (Groupama-FDJ)

• Ranking: Eight
• Delay on podium: 1’41”

What should he send to the platform

This famous flick provoked after the stage of soggy! David Godot had lost out in a stunning exercise in fidelity after Alpe d’Huez, regretting his lack of self-confidence. lock would”jump“On boarding at Mindy airport which allowed him to hurt Quintana, Yates, Bardet and even Thomas even if some came back in the last apartment.

Gaudo hopesto be on fire“In the Pyrenees and aiming for the podium, as Marc Madiot announced in January. That’s still a bit off, but Godot wasn’t really expected at that level two weeks later.

What can deprive him of it?

It is this lack of maturity that his statements suggest. Sometimes angry at himself, sometimes very satisfied, Gaudu seems to ask a lot of questions. Nothing says he will get all the answers in the Pyrenees. If this Tour of France 2022 can serve him significantly in the future, it could also be a huge disappointment. There will also be this 40km time to finish. Gaudu has plenty of time to recover, at least three minutes and thirty seconds, if he wants to believe it.

Probability of having a podium in Paris: 15%